Poland Milestone Achievement

 

Poland's renewable energy sector is booming in 2025 and beyond, driven by ambitious targets (56% renewable electricity by 2030), massive investments in solar (PV) and offshore wind, and regulatory shifts unlocking growth, with renewables already generating more power than coal in mid-2025. Key developments include significant solar expansion (45 GW planned by 2034), major offshore wind projects (18 GW planned), grid upgrades by PSE (€15bn investment), and a growing focus on energy storage (BESS) to manage intermittency, as Poland transitions from coal towards energy independence and regional leadership. 

Milestone Achievement: Renewables surpassed coal in electricity generation for the first time in June 2025, marking a significant energy transition milestone.

Ambitious Targets: Poland aims for 56% renewable electricity by 2030, with plans for 57GW of installed capacity by then.

Solar PV Dominance: Solar is leading growth, reaching ~20.7 GW by late 2024, with projections for up to 45 GW by 2034, supported by supportive auction schemes.

Offshore Wind Boom: A major focus is offshore wind, with plans for 18 GW operational within a decade and projects like Baltica 2 & Baltic Power underway.

Grid & Storage Investment: The Polish grid operator (PSE) plans €15bn in upgrades to handle increased renewables, requiring massive Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) to balance the grid.

Policy & Regulation: New rules (e.g., for onshore wind distance, direct lines for producers) are accelerating project development. 

Solar Photovoltaics (PV): Currently leads installed capacity and sees rapid expansion.

Wind Power (Onshore & Offshore): Significant onshore potential unlocked by relaxed rules, with major offshore projects planned.

Energy Storage (BESS): Crucial for managing the intermittency of solar and wind. 

Grid Bottlenecks: Transmission congestion needs major investment.

Permitting: Complex, multi-layered permitting remains a hurdle.

Curtailment Risk: Without storage, curtailment of renewable output could rise.

Poland is rapidly shifting from coal, becoming a major renewable energy market with strong industrial backing, aiming to be a Central/Eastern European energy hub, with projections showing renewables covering up to 70% of electricity needs by 2034. 

Poland is undergoing one of Europe's most impressive energy transformations, rapidly pivoting from its coal-heavy past to emerge as a powerhouse in renewables. Once reliant on coal for over 70% of its electricity, the country has slashed that to around 57% in 2024, with renewables now generating more than coal for the first time in mid-2025. 

 This shift is fueled by massive growth in solar and wind: solar capacity hit 17 GW by 2024, and onshore wind has already surpassed early targets, reaching over 14 GW by 2023. 

Backed by strong industrial muscle—think state giants like Orlen and Tauron pouring billions into green projects, plus Poland leading Europe in battery production and energy storage factories—the nation is positioning itself as a cleantech hub for Central and Eastern Europe. 

 With partnerships like the massive multibuyer renewable deal (the largest in CEE) and events like Re-Source Poland Hub driving collaboration, it's clear industry is all-in. 

Looking ahead, Poland's Energy Policy to 2040 aims for carbon neutrality by 2050, with projections showing renewables covering 56-70% of electricity by 2030 and up to 69% by 2040. 

 Grid upgrades are set to handle 70% renewable generation by 2034, blending solar, wind, nuclear, and storage to meet soaring demand. 

 This isn't just a transition—it's Poland stepping up as the energy leader for the region. Exciting times ahead!

Zeljko Serdar, Croatian Center of Renewable Energy Sources (CCRES)

Croatia's Green Hydrogen Industry: A Path to Sustainable Energy Transition

 

Croatia's green hydrogen industry, guided by its 2050 Hydrogen Strategy, will see significant growth between 2025-2029, focusing on pilot projects in transport (Zagreb, Split, Rijeka, Osijek), developing production capacity (aiming for 70MW by 2030), and integrating into refining (INA's Rijeka project). Key activities include implementing EU funding (NRRP), fostering innovation, and building infrastructure, with national goals set for 26,400 tonnes of annual production by 2030, supported by initiatives like the North Adriatic Hydrogen Valley. 

Key Focus Areas (2025-2029)

Pilot Projects & Early Adoption: Major cities like Zagreb, Split, Osijek, and Rijeka will lead in adopting hydrogen for public transport (buses, potentially maritime/rail).

INA's Role: INA (Croatian Oil Company) is central, developing green hydrogen at the Rijeka refinery using solar power, with plans for a 10MW electrolyser and a biomethane facility in Sisak.

Production Targets: Aiming for significant production, with major steps towards 70MW of hydrogen capacity by 2030, building on existing refinery use.

Infrastructure: Developing a framework for hydrogen use in transport, industry, and blending with natural gas, supported by EU funds and national programs (NRRP, DIGIT project).

Strategic Goals & Support

National Strategy: Aligned with EU goals, Croatia's Hydrogen Strategy (until 2050) guides development, targeting 26,400 tonnes of green hydrogen by 2030.

EU Funding: Leveraging funds like the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP) for projects, including those under the Important Projects of Common European Interest (IPCEI).

Innovation: Supporting applied research and innovation through programs like the "Digital, Innovative and Green Technologies (DIGIT)" project (until 2028).

Expected Developments

Production & Consumption: Increased demand supporting higher production, with early projects focusing on transport, industrial processes, and potentially blending with gas.

Challenges: High costs of green hydrogen may require subsidies or carbon taxes for affordable public transport initially.

Croatia's green hydrogen industry is emerging as a cornerstone of the country's energy transition, driven by ambitious national policies and European Union support. At the heart of this development is the Hydrogen Strategy of the Republic of Croatia until 2050, adopted in 2022, which provides a comprehensive framework for producing, storing, transporting, and utilizing renewable hydrogen. 

 This strategy emphasizes low-carbon and renewable hydrogen as alternatives to fossil fuels, aligning with the EU's broader goals for decarbonization and energy security. 

 By leveraging its abundant renewable energy resources, such as solar and wind, Croatia aims to position itself as a regional leader in hydrogen production, particularly in the North Adriatic region. 

 The industry is poised for significant growth between 2025 and 2029, with a focus on pilot projects, capacity building, and infrastructure development to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.The 2050 Hydrogen Strategy outlines three phases of development: initial groundwork until 2030, scaling up between 2031 and 2040, and full deployment by 2050. 

 Key national goals include installing 70 MW of electrolyzer capacity by 2030, expanding to 2,750 MW by 2050, and achieving an annual production of 26,400 tonnes of renewable hydrogen by 2030. 

 This production target is expected to meet domestic demand in sectors like industry and transport while enabling exports. 

 The strategy prioritizes green hydrogen produced from renewable sources, such as solar, wind, and even municipal waste, to replace grey hydrogen derived from natural gas. 

 To support this, Croatia is fostering a supportive ecosystem through education, public acceptance campaigns, and partnerships with quadruple helix actors—government, industry, academia, and civil society. 

Between 2025 and 2029, the industry is anticipated to experience rapid expansion, transitioning from planning to implementation. This period will see the rollout of initial infrastructure, including hydrogen refueling stations (HRS) along major transport corridors and the integration of hydrogen into existing energy systems. 

 Croatia's participation in EU-funded programs, such as the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) under the NextGenerationEU plan, is crucial here. The National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP) allocates funds for hydrogen initiatives, including grants for production facilities and transport applications. 

 For instance, in 2025, the EU disbursed €835.6 million to Croatia, part of which supports hydrogen development to drive "positive change" in energy and industry sectors. 

 This funding is complemented by national investments, aiming to build resilience against energy volatility while creating jobs in green technologies.A major focus during this growth phase is pilot projects in the transport sector, particularly in urban areas. Croatia has identified 32 pilot projects to kickstart its hydrogen economy, with transport offering the most promising preconditions due to its potential for quick adoption. 

 Key cities—Zagreb, Split, Rijeka, and Osijek—are targeted for initial deployments, where public transport systems like buses and trams will transition to hydrogen fuel cells. 

 For example, funding streams worth €23 million have been launched to install the first HRS along the Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T) between Zagreb, Rijeka, and Split, enabling hydrogen-powered vehicles for long-haul and urban mobility. 

 These pilots not only test technology feasibility but also build public confidence and regulatory frameworks for wider rollout.Developing production capacity is another pillar of Croatia's strategy. By 2030, the 70 MW target will primarily come from electrolyzers powered by renewables, with an emphasis on scaling up from small-scale demonstrations. 

 This includes integrating hydrogen into industrial processes, such as feedstock for chemicals and fertilizers, to ensure sufficient supply before expanding to harder-to-abate sectors like heavy transport and heating post-2030. 

 Innovation is fostered through R&D investments, including EU-backed projects for wave energy-integrated hydrogen production in coastal areas. 

A flagship example of integration into existing industries is INA's Rijeka refinery project, Croatia's first commercial green hydrogen plant. 

 Launched with contracts signed in late 2025, this €33 million initiative features a 10 MW proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzer supplied by Ohmium, paired with an 11 MW solar power plant built by KONČAR and Siemens Energy. 

 Expected to produce 1,500 tonnes of green hydrogen annually, it will replace grey hydrogen in refining processes, reducing emissions while supplying fuel for transport. 

 Backed by a €15 million NRRP grant, the project exemplifies how EU funding is accelerating industrial decarbonization. 

Building infrastructure remains a key activity, with plans for a nationwide network of HRS and pipelines to support hydrogen distribution. 

 Fostering innovation involves collaborations with international partners, enhancing technology transfer and SME involvement. 

 The North Adriatic Hydrogen Valley (NAHV) initiative, a transnational project with Slovenia and Italy's Friuli Venezia Giulia region, is pivotal in this regard. 

 Funded by Horizon Europe, NAHV aims to create a hydrogen-based ecosystem, including industrial testbeds and cross-border supply chains, positioning the region as Europe's first transnational hydrogen valley. 

 This collaboration leverages the Adriatic's strategic location for hydrogen imports and exports, supporting Croatia's goals for regional leadership. In conclusion, Croatia's green hydrogen industry, guided by the 2050 Strategy, is on track for transformative growth from 2025 to 2029. Through targeted pilot projects, capacity expansion, and strategic initiatives like NAHV and INA's Rijeka project, the country is harnessing EU funding and innovation to build a sustainable future. While challenges such as high initial costs and grid integration persist, these efforts promise to reduce emissions, enhance energy independence, and drive economic prosperity in line with global climate objectives.

Zeljko Serdar, Croatian Center of Renewable Energy Sources (CCRES)

Overview of Renewable Energy in Cuba

Cuba is actively pursuing renewable energy as a solution to its longstanding energy crisis, driven by unreliable fossil fuel imports, aging infrastructure, and frequent blackouts. As of 2025, renewables account for only about 3-5% of the country's electricity generation, far below the government's ambitious targets. 

The focus is primarily on solar power, with growing interest in wind, biomass, and hydropower, supported by international partnerships amid economic challenges like U.S. sanctions.

Cuba is facing an unprecedented economic and social crisis, marked by low wages, power outages, shortages of essential medicines, and a massive exodus of its population. The situation impacts key sectors while the regime halts necessary changes. Cuba is an exhausted country, with a collapsed economy and a population that is fleeing. It needs a profound and urgent change.

In 2025, a multitude of internal and external factors will have aligned, bringing the 66-year-old Cuban communist regime to its deepest crisis ever. Since its establishment in 1959, the Cuban revolutionary regime has endured several moments of profound crisis, which have periodically tested its survivability. Against all odds, it survived its vulnerable first three years (including the 1961 Bay of Pigs invasion and US trade embargo); the socioeconomic challenges surrounding the chaotic Mariel Boatlift in 1980; the deep political and economic debacle sparked by the withdrawal of Soviet economic and military support at the end of the Cold War (1991-); the ensuing so-called Special Period with concomitant social unrest in 1993-94; and Fidel Castro’s death in 2016. More recently, Cuba’s communist government managed to survive unprecedented mass street protests in July 2021. As long as the political system continues to obstruct reforms, the island will keep heading towards an inevitable disaster.

Several interwoven factors have brought Cuba to this point. Some are old, structural problems that have been exacerbated such as food and fuel scarcities. Others are new, such as the second Trump administration’s multifaceted strategy to push the communist regime into extinction. According to a recent report by the international Food Monitor Program, 25 percent of Cubans admit to going to bed hungry; malnutrition diseases have skyrocketed. The survey also found that two-thirds of the population blame the government for worsening food shortages. According to the Program, Cuba—once the wealthiest and best-fed Caribbean nation—accounts for 5 percent of the population but 40 percent of the region’s food insecurity cases.

Cuba imports 70 per cent of its food, ironically, most of it from the United States. It simply does not have funds nor credit to purchase more food. Neither does it have a functional system of transporting, refrigerating, or distributing foodstuffs. While state authorities blame the US embargo—which since 2000 exempts food and medicines—only 8 percent of Cubans see the embargo as the main culprit. It does not help that Cuban leaders President Díaz-Canel, Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz, National Assembly President Esteban Lazo, and other high ranking Party and Armed Forces members parade themselves sporting prominent beer bellies while the average Cuban becomes increasingly emaciated.

If food and medicine shortages are severe, it is worse with fuel, almost all of it also imported from abroad, largely oil from Venezuela, Russia, and Mexico. Cuba’s fuel crisis intensified in 2024 stalling tractors, trucks, buses, and motor engines, large and small. I recently saw a video—not AI generated—of an ox pulling a bus. Heaps of trash and debris have accumulated in streets for months because there is no fuel to run trash collecting trucks. The island’s decrepit power plants, moreover, are devastated as evidenced by routine breakdowns and the state’s inability to repair most of them. Back in 2022, the desperate regime brought to Cuba a fleet of floating powerplants; in recent months, the last of these vessels has left Cuba because of the government’s inability to pay for its services. Eighty percent of Cuba’s electricity is generated from oil. Oil scarcity has led to daily and multi-day, island-wide blackouts. There are instances of hospitals without power whose gas or diesel generators cannot be operated because there is no fuel. Lack of fuel has also impacted the water distribution system. Unbelievably, Cuba is also running out of drinking water.Cuba is currently experiencing an unprecedented economic and social crisis characterized by low wages, power outages, shortages of essential medicines, and a massive exodus of its population. This situation profoundly affects key sectors while the regime continues to resist necessary changes. The country is exhausted, with a collapsed economy and a fleeing population, urgently needing profound change.

By 2025, a combination of internal and external factors will align, bringing the 66-year-old Cuban communist regime to its most significant crisis ever. Since its establishment in 1959, the regime has faced several profound crises that have tested its survival. Against the odds, it managed to endure its vulnerable first three years, which included the 1961 Bay of Pigs invasion and the imposition of a U.S. trade embargo. It survived socioeconomic challenges during the chaotic Mariel Boatlift in 1980 and the severe political and economic decline that followed the withdrawal of Soviet support at the end of the Cold War in 1991. This was followed by the so-called Special Period, which saw significant social unrest in 1993-94, and the death of Fidel Castro in 2016. More recently, the government withstood unprecedented mass protests in July 2021. However, as long as the political system continues to impede reforms, Cuba will move inexorably toward disaster.

Several interrelated factors have led Cuba to this critical moment. Some are longstanding structural issues, such as food and fuel shortages, while others are new, like the multifaceted strategy of the second Trump administration aimed at pushing the communist regime toward extinction. A recent report from the international Food Monitor Program revealed that 25 percent of Cubans admit to going to bed hungry, with malnutrition-related diseases on the rise. The survey also indicated that two-thirds of the population blames the government for escalating food shortages. Once the wealthiest and best-fed nation in the Caribbean, Cuba now accounts for 5 percent of the population but a staggering 40 percent of the region's food insecurity cases.

Cuba imports 70 percent of its food, much of it ironically from the United States. However, the country lacks the funds and credit to purchase adequate supplies and does not have a functional system for transporting, refrigerating, or distributing food. While state authorities attribute the crisis to the U.S. embargo— which has exempted food and medicines since 2000—only 8 percent of Cubans view it as the primary cause. This is compounded by the visible disparity between the leaders, such as President Díaz-Canel, Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz, and National Assembly President Esteban Lazo, who flaunt their wealth and comfort, evidenced by their prominent beer bellies, while the average Cuban becomes increasingly emaciated.

The crisis extends beyond food and medicine; fuel shortages are even more severe. Almost all of Cuba's fuel is imported, primarily from Venezuela, Russia, and Mexico. The fuel crisis intensified in 2024, halting the operation of tractors, trucks, buses, and smaller engines. I recently saw a video—not AI-generated—of an ox pulling a bus. Heaps of trash and debris have accumulated in the streets for months due to the lack of fuel for garbage collection trucks. 

Additionally, the island’s aging power plants are deteriorating, with routine breakdowns and the government's inability to repair most of them. Back in 2022, the desperate regime introduced a fleet of floating power plants to Cuba; however, in recent months, the last of these vessels left due to the government’s inability to afford their services. Approximately 80 percent of Cuba’s electricity is generated from oil, so the scarcity of fuel has led to daily and multi-day blackouts across the island. There are even instances of hospitals losing power, where gas or diesel generators cannot be operated due to fuel shortages. As if these crises weren't enough, Cuba is also running out of drinking water.

Cuba, particularly Havana, is also experiencing a growing number of incidents involving the collapse of old buildings, some of which have been fatal. Four Habaneros died in July, smashed by the rubble of two buildings. Each of these disasters pushes entire families into Cuba, and particularly Havana, which is seeing an increase in incidents involving the collapse of old buildings, some of which have tragically been fatal. In July, four residents lost their lives when two buildings collapsed, burying them under the rubble. These disasters leave entire families homeless. Even the once-stately Aldama mansion, a nineteenth-century neoclassical palace, appears dilapidated. While Havana crumbles, a new forty-two-story luxury hotel, the Iberostar, stands as a stark contrast to the city's impoverished residents.

Desperate for hard currency, the government has implemented measures that have backfired. It now requires Cubans to pay for cell phones and gasoline in dollars. This move is part of the increasing dollarization of the economy, a reversal from the now-defunct Cuban Convertible Peso. As a result, a new class has emerged: the "Cubanos con Fé" (families abroad), while longtime regime supporters struggle with the diminishing purchasing power of the Cuban peso. Recent restrictions on repatriating profits for foreign investors are likely to lead to a dramatic decline in foreign investments, depriving Cuba of a crucial source of support that has helped it weather previous economic crises.

In summary, there is substantial evidence that Cuba has lost many of the resources necessary to keep the regime afloat, even if precariously. The ship's rusted olive-colored hull is riddled with holes, and Cuba lacks the means to repair them—when one hole is fixed, two more emerge. There is a significant possibility that some leaders will abandon ship, and other generals may be forced to resign. There simply aren’t enough lifeboats to accommodate everyone. homelessness. Even Havana’s most stately mansion, Aldama’s nineteenth-century neoclassical palace, looks dilapidated. While Havana crumbles, the recently opened, forty-two-story high Iberostar luxury hotel rises as the regime’s middle finger to the city’s impoverished dwellers. Desperate for hard currency, the government has instituted measures that have backfired. It now requires Cubans to pay in dollars for cell phones and gasoline. That is part of the increasing dollarization of the economy (going back to the now-defunct Cuba Convertible Peso), and how it has given rise to the class of “Cubanos con Fé” (familia en el exterior) while long-time regime supporters have to struggle because of the puny purchasing power of the Cuban peso. Recent orders prohibiting the repatriation of foreign investors’ profit will most certainly lead to a dramatic drop in foreign investments, depriving Cuba of a source of support that had helped it sustain previous economic crises.

Cuba's National Electric System has been plagued by issues, including fuel shortages from Venezuela, corrosion in thermal plants, and deferred maintenance, leading to only 34% of thermal capacity operational in early 2025.

This has resulted in electricity meeting just 50-70% of demand, with multiple grid collapses in recent months.

Renewables currently contribute minimally, with solar capacity at around 530 MW installed as of mid-2025, including small parks and rooftop systems.

Biomass from sugarcane and limited wind pilots exist, but large-scale adoption is slow.

Overall, 2025 has seen accelerated solar builds and strategic announcements, but achieving long-term goals will require sustained investment and reforms.

In sum, there is plenty of evidence that Cuba has lost many of the means that have kept the regime afloat for decades, even if precariously so. The ship’s rusted olive-colored hull is full of holes, and Cuba does not have the wherewithal to plug many of them—one is plugged, and two more open. There is a strong possibility that some leaders will jump ship, and other generals may be forced to walk the plank. There are just not enough emergency boats.

CRO GREEN

Hrvatska, zemlja s bogatom poljoprivrednom tradicijom i iznimnim prirodnim resursima, već se niz godina suočava s izazovima koji zahtijevaju strateški i održiv pristup. 

Jedan od ključnih izazova je depopulacija ruralnih područja i neiskorišteni potencijal za organsku poljoprivredu. Kako bi se stvorili preduvjeti za povratak mladih obitelji iz inozemstva i privukla dijaspora za ulaganja u Hrvatsku, pokrenuta je inicijativa 'CRO GREEN' – projekt za održivu budućnost hrvatske poljoprivrede.  

Croatia, a country with a rich agricultural tradition and exceptional natural resources, has for a number of years been facing challenges that require a strategic and sustainable approach. 

One of the key challenges is the depopulation of rural areas and the underutilised potential for organic agriculture. In order to create the preconditions for the return of young families from abroad and attract the diaspora to invest in Croatia, the ‘CRO GREEN' initiative was launched – a project for a sustainable future of Croatian agriculture. 

Pročitajte više na blogu Croatia, the War, and the Future naše Ine Vukić. Po struci psihologinje, uspješne blogerice, koja neumorno piše o izazovima s kojima se Hrvatska nosi. Potpredsjednica Hrvatske akademije znanosti i umjetnosti u dijaspori i domovini.

https://inavukic.com/2025/11/28/cro-green-plan-for-croatia-to-boost-economy-rural-population-and-return-from-diaspora/

An Era of Energy Independence and Abundance: From Unforeseen Boom to Global Reality

 

Yet, this era is tentative. 

Introduction

In the mid-2010s, the global energy landscape appeared precarious. Oil prices had plummeted from over $100 per barrel in 2014 to under $30 by early 2016, driven by a supply glut from U.S. shale production and sluggish demand amid economic uncertainty. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East loomed large, and forecasts painted a picture of persistent volatility, with many experts predicting prolonged dependence on volatile imports and a slow, uneven transition to renewables. 

Fast-forward to November 2025, and the world confronts a strikingly different reality: an era of energy independence and abundance that few could have anticipated just six or eight years prior. This shift, marked by surging production, plummeting renewable costs, and diversified supply chains, has reshaped economies, bolstered security, and accelerated decarbonization efforts. This post explores whether this transformation holds true, examining historical predictions against current trends, the drivers of abundance, and the implications for a sustainable future.

Historical Predictions: 

A Landscape of Caution and ConstraintSix to eight years ago—spanning 2017 to 2019—energy outlooks were dominated by caution. The International Energy Agency's (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2017 projected global oil demand to rise steadily to 104 million barrels per day (mb/d) by 2023, but with warnings of supply risks from OPEC+ cuts and underinvestment in upstream projects. Renewables were seen as promising but niche; the IEA forecasted solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity to reach about 600 gigawatts (GW) globally by 2023, a figure that seemed ambitious given grid integration challenges and subsidy dependencies. 

Natural gas was hailed as a bridge fuel, but LNG exports were expected to grow modestly, with the U.S. potentially becoming a net exporter only by the early 2020s—if shale economics held.In the U.S., the shale revolution was already underway, but independence was far from assured. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) in 2018 predicted the country would remain a net petroleum importer until at least 2020, citing refining constraints and export infrastructure lags. 

Globally, abundance felt elusive; McKinsey's Global Energy Perspective 2017 warned of "energy trilemmas"—balancing security, affordability, and sustainability—amid rising demand from Asia. Predictions emphasized scarcity risks: peak oil debates lingered, coal's decline was gradual, and electric vehicles (EVs) were projected to capture just 2-3% of global car sales by 2025. The consensus? Energy security would hinge on diplomatic maneuvering, not domestic booms or technological leaps. 

These forecasts, while prescient in some areas, profoundly underestimated the pace of innovation and market forces. By 2025, reality has outstripped expectations, delivering not just stability but surplus.The U.S. Model: Achieving Independence Through Shale and DiversificationThe United States stands as the poster child for this unforeseen independence. In 2019, the U.S. became a net energy exporter for the first time since 1957, a milestone the EIA confirmed with exports surpassing imports by energy content. 

By 2023, exports hit record highs, with oil production peaking at over 13 mb/d, and 2025 projections show sustained output around 13.2 mb/d despite some moderation in shale drilling. 

Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and LNG exports have exploded, with the U.S. shipping 14.9 billion cubic feet per day of LNG in 2025—25% more than 2024—bolstered by new facilities like Plaquemines LNG. 

This wasn't predicted in 2017-2019 outlooks, which anticipated net imports persisting into the 2020s. Instead, policy shifts under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and technological efficiencies in fracking have intertwined fossil fuels with renewables. U.S. CO2 emissions have declined as cheap gas displaces coal, while solar and wind capacity has surged to over 200 GW combined by mid-2025. 

Reports from the Conference Board underscore this: "The US has achieved a long-desired goal: energy independence," but warn of challenges like permitting delays that could erode gains. 

Abundance here means not just self-sufficiency but export prowess, with LNG reshaping global trade and shielding allies from Russian supply shocks.Global Trends: From Scarcity Fears to Supply SurfeitsBeyond the U.S., the world has embraced abundance on multiple fronts. Global energy demand grew 2.2% in 2024—faster than the 2013-2023 average—but was met with renewables claiming 38% of supply growth, outpacing natural gas (28%) and coal (15%). 

 Electricity demand surged 4.3%, the largest absolute increase ever (outside recessions), yet renewables filled the gap: solar alone added 306 terawatt-hours (TWh) in H1 2025, a 31% jump, pushing its global share to 8.8%. 

By mid-2025, renewables overtook coal in electricity generation for the first time, at 34.3% versus 33.1%. 

Oil and gas production trends further defy early predictions. World supply rose to 105 mb/d in 2025, up 1.8 mb/d from 2024, with non-OPEC+ nations like the U.S., Brazil, Guyana, and Canada driving 1.4 mb/d of growth. 

OPEC+ added 1.4 mb/d, unwinding cuts amid softening prices, leading to a projected surplus of 2.7 mb/d in Q3 2025. 

Brent crude averaged $69/b in 2025, down from peaks, thanks to this glut—far from the $80+ forecasts of 2018. 

LNG supply waves from North America and Qatar promise lower prices, enhancing security post-Ukraine invasion. 

Renewable abundance is even more pronounced. Solar PV capacity exceeded 3,000 GW by end-2025, with China (47%) and Europe (20%) leading; costs have plunged, making behind-the-meter solar/battery systems viable for households and businesses. 

IRENA's 2025 Global Renewables Summit declared: "We are entering the age of renewable abundance," with investments up 14% annually since 2018 despite shocks. 

McKinsey's Global Energy Perspective 2025 notes emissions peaked in 2024, with 2025 marking structural decline, as clean energy outpaces demand. 

This contrasts sharply with 2017's modest projections, where solar growth averaged under 20% annually.Key Metric

2017-2019 Prediction (by 2025)

2025 Reality

Global Solar Capacity

~600-800 GW

>3,000 GW 

Yet, this era is tentative. 

Permitting bottlenecks, trade tensions, and uneven transitions in developing nations could reverse gains. Policymakers must prioritize grid upgrades, equitable access, and innovation to sustain abundance. In retrospect, the mid-2010s' pessimism underestimated human ingenuity; today, that same drive beckons us toward a truly sustainable tomorrow. The question isn't whether abundance arrived—it did. It's how we ensure it endures. Zeljko Serdar, CCRES.

Geoenergija Razvoj

Napokon, nakon 20-tak godina mog pisanja. Nova Ina, odnosno njen ozbiljan tržišni konkurent, trebala bi postati tvrtka Geoenergija razvoj koju je koncem lipnja osnovala Agencija za ugljikovodike.

Radi se o najznačajnijem strateškom projektu koji pokreće Republika Hrvatska, a koji ujedno predstavlja najsnažniji iskorak u odnosu na dosadašnje stanje. Objedinjavanjem resursa unutar jednog zakona povećati će se učinkovitosti sustava u području energetike kroz smanjenje administrativnih barijera.

Trebalo nam je godina i godina da se odupremo sluganskom razmišljanju, kako "stručnjaka za ugljikovodike" tako i političara, te da dočekamo početak realizacije ovog Vladinog projekta osnivanjem tržišnog pandana i svojevrsnog antipoda ovakvoj Ini, koji će biti i ostati u stopostotnom vlasništvu hrvatske države.

Prvenstveni plan Geoenergije razvoj je osigurati dodatne izvore energetske sigurnosti koju država nije u mogućnosti pokriti trenutnim resursima kojima raspolaže. Osim toga, cilj osnivanja je stvaranje operativnog tijela koje može sudjelovati u područjima u kojima tržište trenutno ne reagira, poput razvoja tehnologija za hvatanje i skladištenje ugljikova dioksida, vodikovih projekata te međunarodnih aktivnosti u sektoru energetske tranzicije.

Treba odmah započeti raditi s regulatornim tijelima kako bismo što prije započeli s proizvodnjom iz novih otkrića na poljima Hrvatske i u inozemstvu, s fokusom na održivoj eksploataciji i iskorištavanju tehnologija za zaštitu okoliša, te tako još jače pridonijeli energetskoj sigurnosti Hrvatske.

Rooftop solar emissions math

The high cost of solar comes at a time when utility bills are rising faster than inflation, with that trend expected to continue.

Spanish renewables developer RIC Energy said it has closed EUR 29.5 million (USD 34.0m) in project financing for two solar photovoltaic projects in Almodovar del Campo, central Spain.

The financing was provided by Alameda Energy Fund, a renewables-focused vehicle managed by Beka Credit, RIC Energy said in a LinkedIn post. The company will use the funds to build its Bluesol 1 and Bluesol 2 solar farms, which will have a combined installed capacity of over 60 MW.

The transaction marks RIC Energy’s first project finance deal in Spain and involves the company’s first projects to be constructed in the country after two decades of developing renewables abroad.

RIC Energy said the transaction represents a “decisive step” in its transformation into an independent power producer (IPP) and showcases its ability to develop projects supported by its own financial strength.

Polish renewables developer-operator R.Power SA said it has started construction of the 55-MWp Lazuri solar farm in north-western Romania.

The project, located in the Lazuri commune of Satu Mare County, will be built by R.Power’s EPC arm NOMAD Electric, the company said.

The solar farm will connect to the national grid via a new 110-kV substation linked to the Vetis–Abator transmission line. Once operational, the plant is expected to produce around 70 GWh of electricity per year, enough to power more than 48,000 homes

The Lazuri project is backed by a 15-year contract-for-difference (CfD) awarded to R.Power in Romania’s renewables auction.

Ukraine’s government has approved the provision of UAH 440 million (USD 10.5m/EUR 9.08m) in state grants to support the development of decentralized renewable energy sources and secure an uninterrupted power supply for critical public facilities.

Some UAH 396 million will be allocated to local budgets for the installation of solar panels, heat pumps, and energy storage systems in schools, hospitals, and kindergartens. The remaining UAH 44 million will fund technical assistance for procurements, which will be carried out by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP).

This project underscores our priority: decentralization of the energy system and high-quality management of public investments, made possible through cooperation with the European Investment Bank and our international partners.

The Renewable Energy Solutions (RES) program is financed by a grant from the European Investment Bank (EIB) provided by the Federal Government of Germany and the International Climate Initiative (IKI). The project is jointly implemented by Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH and the UNDP, which will act as the procurement agent.

India's solar module manufacturing capacity is set to surpass 125 GW by 2025, well above domestic demand of around 40 GW, which is expected to lead to an inventory buildup of 29 GW by the third quarter of 2025.

India's Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme has been very effective in driving factory announcements, but the industry is now seeing warning signs of overcapacity. The challenge has shifted from building capacity to achieving cost-competitiveness and diversifying export markets.

New 50% reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US have significantly impacted India's module exports to its primary export market.

Indian-assembled module using imported cells is at least USD 0.03 per W more expensive than a fully imported Chinese module, while a completely ‘Made in India’ module would cost more than double Chinese counterparts.

Achieving cost-competitiveness will require a pivot to aggressive research and development (R&D), investment in next-generation technology, and a push to open new export markets in Africa, Latin America, and Europe.

India is at a crossroads, but it holds the clearest potential to become the only credible, large-scale alternative to the Chinese solar supply chain.

Dubai-based AMEA Power has begun installing the first solar panels at its 1,000-MW solar power project with a 600-MWh battery system in Egypt’s Benban area of Aswan, saying it will become Africa’s largest integrated solar and storage project.

In China’s domestic market, industry participants reported that over half of the nearly 20 GW wafer inventory comprises n-type 210R (182mm × 210 mm) wafers, underscoring a concentration in this specification. Market insiders noted that some producers have slightly reduced selling prices for these wafers from around CNY 1.40 ($0.20)/pc to CNY 1.35/pc to ease inventory pressure and improve cash flow, while emphasizing that favorable policy guidance alone is insufficient to stabilize prices amid weak demand.

Adding to the cost burden, another market participant noted that rising silver prices have pushed up solar cell manufacturing costs, further limiting producers’ ability to absorb any wafer price increases.

Despite these headwinds, wafer production remains at elevated levels. Sources indicated that average utilization rates have exceeded 60%, and October wafer output is expected to surpass 60 GW. However, under current policy directives on production control, market participants expect output to decline in November and December as inventory accumulation intensifies.

On the export front, both market sources and customs data show that Chinese wafer exports increased from January to September 2025 compared with the same period in 2024. This growth was primarily driven by rising solar cell manufacturing capacity in India, now the second-largest wafer consumption market after China. Other major export destinations include Vietnam, Thailand, Laos, and Indonesia, where Chinese wafers are processed into solar cells for markets such as India and Turkey, or further assembled into modules in Africa before being shipped to the U.S.

Sodium Batteries - Safer and Cheaper #learnstuff

Sodium-ion (Na-ion) batteries are creating a "wow" factor because they are a potentially cheaper, more sustainable, and safer alternative to lithium-ion batteries, with notable advancements in performance, such as fast charging and better cold-temperature performance. While they currently have lower energy density than some lithium-ion batteries, they are becoming a promising technology for large-scale energy storage like electric grids, as well as for some vehicles and devices. 

Explore the rise of sodium-ion batteries (SIB/Na-ion) — cheaper, safer, and built from abundant materials like iron, carbon, and salt. This video breaks down how SIBs work, key chemistries (NFPP, NASICON, Prussian blue analogs), advantages vs. Li-ion, and recent breakthroughs from UCSD/UChicago, JNCASR, BYD, CATL, Altris, Faradion, and more. 

Learn about fast-charging, solid-state anode‑free designs, grid-scale potential, and real-world commercialization efforts across Germany, China, India, and Australia. Perfect for tech-curious viewers wanting a clear snapshot of the sodium battery revolution. 

If you found this helpful, please like and share to spread the word.

#SodiumIon #NaIon #BatteryTech #EnergyStorage #EVbatteries #SIB

SIBs received academic and commercial interest in the 2010s and early 2020s, largely due to lithium's high cost, uneven geographic distribution, and environmentally-damaging extraction process. Unlike lithium, sodium is abundant, particularly in saltwater. 

SIB cells consist of a cathode based on a sodium-based material, an anode (not necessarily a sodium-based material) and a liquid electrolyte containing dissociated sodium salts in polar protic or aprotic solvents. During charging, sodium ions move from the cathode to the anode while electrons travel through the external circuit. During discharge, the reverse process occurs.

Sodium-ion batteries have several advantages over competing battery technologies. Compared to lithium-ion batteries, sodium-ion batteries have somewhat lower cost, better safety characteristics (for the aqueous versions), and similar power delivery characteristics, but also a lower energy density (especially the aqueous versions). 

Companies around the world have been working to develop commercially viable sodium-ion batteries.

In July 2024, the University of Chicago and UC San Diego developed an anode-free sodium solid-state battery that they claimed was cheaper, safer, fast charging, and high capacity.

A research team at the Jawaharlal Nehru Centre for Advanced Scientific Research (JNCASR), an autonomous institute of the Department of Science and Technology (DST) has developed a super-fast charging sodium-ion battery (SIB) based on a NASICON-type cathode and anode material, that can charge up to 80% in just six minutes and last over 3000 charge cycles.

Australia's Altech is building a 120 MWh plant in Germany.

Germany invested €1.3 million in a sodium-ion project with BASF and Mercedes-Benz.

Altris AB was founded by Associate Professor Reza Younesi, his former PhD student, Ronnie Mogensen, and Associate Professor William Brant as a spin-off from Uppsala University, Sweden launched in 2017 as part of research efforts from the team on sodium-ion batteries. Altris holds patents on non-flammable fluorine-free electrolytes consisting of NaBOB in alkyl-phosphate solvents, Prussian white cathode, and cell production. Clarios is partnering to produce batteries using Altris technology.

BYD in 2023 invested $1.4B USD into the construction of a sodium-ion battery plant in Xuzhou with an annual output of 30 GWh.

Chinese battery manufacturer CATL (world's largest EV battery maker) announced in 2021 that it would bring a sodium-ion based battery to market by 2023. It uses Prussian blue analogue for the positive electrode and porous carbon for the negative electrode. They claimed a specific energy density of 160 Wh/kg in their first generation battery.

Faradion Limited is a subsidiary of India's Reliance Industries. Its cell design uses oxide cathodes with hard carbon anode and a liquid electrolyte. Their pouch cells have energy densities comparable to commercial Li-ion batteries (160 Wh/kg at cell-level), with good rate performance up to 3C, and cycle lives of 300 (100% depth of discharge) to over 1,000 cycles (80% depth of discharge). Its battery packs have demonstrated use for e-bike and e-scooter applications. They demonstrated transporting sodium-ion cells in the shorted state (at 0 V), eliminating risks from commercial transport of such cells.[93] It is partnering with AMTE Power plc (formerly known as AGM Batteries Limited).

The future for sodium-ion batteries is bright, driven by their lower cost, abundance of sodium, and improving performance, making them a strong contender for grid-scale energy storage and budget-friendly electric vehicles. Market growth is projected to be substantial, with forecasts showing significant expansion in annual production and market value over the next decade. Key challenges remain, such as increasing energy density and cycle life, but ongoing research and development are rapidly addressing these issues, and some manufacturers are already producing them for commercial use. 

Renewable energy surpassed coal

For the first time, renewable energy has surpassed coal as the primary source of electricity worldwide, according to a new report, marking a shift in global reliance on environmentally harmful fossil fuels.

Renewable energy contributed 34.3% of all global electricity generated in the first half of 2025, while coal fell to 33.1%. Renewable energies include sources like solar, wind, and hydro, as opposed to fossil fuels like coal and natural gas.

Nevertheless, global coal generation fell 0.6% in the first half compared to the same period a year earlier.

I think that most economies want to expand their clean electricity, but some are more strategic and seizing on the opportunity than others.

China has been particularly clever in decreasing its reliance on fossil fuels. Countries including Hungary, Pakistan and Australia set records in solar energy production, generating 20% or more of their electricity from solar power.

Global carbon dioxide emissions fell slightly in the first half of the year as solar and wind power "exceeded demand growth and led to a slight fall in fossil fuel use."

China has been the largest driver in the move to renewable energy sources, accounting for 55% of global solar generation growth. The United States' share, by contrast, was just 14%. Renewables might slow as the Trump administration moves to sharply reduce clean-energy development.

While the world — including the United States — is making significant gains in making energy cleaner, increased demand leaves renewables struggling to meet consumer needs. The tech race to integrate artificial intelligence into daily life is in part to blame.

This has really been an inflection point for the United States in that power demand in the U.S. had flatlined for a couple decades, and with the growth of data centers, and AI and crypto, and with other growth from industries and air conditioning, and so on, we're starting to see electricity demand grow 3% per year, rather than be flat or 1%.

Populous developing countries like China and India led the charge in adding more renewable energies. Meanwhile, Western societies including the European Union and the United States met some of their increased electricity demand through the use of fossil fuels during this period.

Plant This Shrub - Aronia

Aronia, or black chokeberry, fits well into permaculture landscapes due to its hardiness, ability to tolerate varied soil conditions, high antioxidant properties, and role as a native plant. It provides multi-season interest, self-fertile fruit production, and can be incorporated into edible landscaping, food forests, and systems like swales for its ecological function. While it produces astringent fruit, best suited for use in jams or smoothies, its resilience and contribution to a polyculture system make it a valuable permaculture species. 

Why Aronia is a Good Permaculture Plant

Nativism: 

Aronia is a North American native plant, integrating well into regional ecosystems. 

Toughness: 

It tolerates a wide range of soil types, including wet or clay soils, and can grow in full sun to partial shade. 

Food Production: 

It's a prolific producer of nutritious, high-antioxidant berries, though they are astringent when raw. 

Edible Landscaping: 

Its attractive foliage and fruit make it suitable for edible landscaping and food forest systems. 

Pest & Disease Resistant: 

The shrub is not often plagued by birds or pests and is generally free of disease. 

Integration into Permaculture Design

Polyculture Systems: 

Integrate aronia into a polyculture system with other native, edible, and beneficial plants for a more visually appealing and ecologically functional landscape. 

Food Forests: 

Place it in a food forest, potentially underplanting larger trees, to create edible layers within the system. 

Edible Swales: 

Consider planting aronia near or on swales to help manage water and provide ecological benefits while producing food. 

Care and Harvesting

Planting: 

Plant in spring or fall in a site with at least six hours of full sun for best fruiting. Amend the soil with compost and mulch to retain moisture and suppress weeds. 

Pruning: 

Prune after flowering to remove dead or diseased branches, but avoid heavy pruning after flowering to preserve berry production. 

Harvesting: Berries ripen in late summer and are best harvested when fully ripe, often after the first frost. They can be harvested with rakes or by snipping clusters, and are excellent when processed into jams, smoothies, or dried goods. 

Discover why Aronia (black chokeberry) is a must‑plant for permaculture — a quick 5‑minute checklist to plant today! Learn about its native benefits, soil and sun tolerance, high‑antioxidant berries, pest/disease resistance, and how to use it in food forests, polycultures, and edible swales. Includes planting, pruning, and harvest tips plus practical uses (jams, smoothies). Like and share if this helped your garden plan!

#Aronia #BlackChokeberry #Permaculture #FoodForest #EdibleLandscaping #Polyculture #PlantToday

OUTLINE:

00:00:00

The Unsung Hero of the Permaculture Garden

00:00:37

Why Aronia Thrives

00:01:27

The Multi-Functional Powerhouse

00:02:32

Your Simple Aronia Blueprint

00:03:16

The Joy of Harvest and a Call to Action

All the best to all of you, 

Zeljko Serdar.